The Real Price of Gold

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The real price of gold, as adjusted by commodities is making some nice baby steps toward rebounding. Here is a picture of the gold ETF vs. certain key commodity ETF’s and markets, that show the progress of what would be the most desirable condition (a rising real price) for a healthy gold bull.

gld.dbc

And then of course there are other notable measures like Gold vs. Stock Markets. Here is the progress vs. SPY and EZU…

gld.spy.ezu

Recovery would have to start somewhere, and the fledgling moves above show that gold is above the SMA 50 in EZU (Europe) units but still has work to do in SPY units.

Finally, below is our big picture road map NFTRH has been working to in a) managing risk against the gold bear market and b) not having its analysis shaken out of the fact that the real price of gold remains in a secular bull market and thus, so too does gold.

The long term Gold vs. CCI commodity index has been a core (even the core) chart in NFTRH’s biggest picture macro themes including prominently, secular economic contraction. As long as point 4 holds a higher high (to 2), that theme remains a good one.

au.cci

NFTRH was the first that I knew of to talk about a bullish economic phase in early 2013 when most people were under their respective rocks hiding as law makers went through the dreaded Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance. That was due to industry information I had about the Semiconductor equipment sector and also due to indicators like the Palladium-Gold ratio (ref. 1st chart above). But the chart directly above paints said recovery (post-2011) as a counter trend economic up cycle within an ongoing cycle of economic contraction.

Why do policy makers continue to fight the good inflationary fight? Why, look no further than this chart.

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