Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

USD Dollar and FOMC Today

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SPX broke strong resistance levels at the 50 DMA and the 1976-8 level yesterday to close at a very impressive 1985. That break up over the 50 DMA opens up the daily upper band as a target and that closed yesterday at 2003. With FOMC today it seems unlikely that Yellen can say a great deal to cheer the markets, QE3 has ended and is unlikely to be even temporarily revived, and the Fed has made so many soothing noises about future interest rate rises already that it’s hard to see what they could add to that. Nonetheless some more soothing noises today might just get SPX to that target at the upper band. SPX daily chart:

141029 SPX Daily Trendlines BBs MAs

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Economic Snapshot

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Excerpted from this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 314:

Our view has been that a stronger US dollar would eventually start to eat away at corporate results, especially in the manufacturing sector and at US based companies with a  global customer base.  The decline in revenues thus far is something to be watched because where revenues go, earnings eventually follow.

[edit: the segment previous to this one reviewed a contrast between strong earnings and sagging revenues with companies that have reported earnings thus far]

An article by Doug Short published at Business Insider on Friday illustrates how the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) called for a recession in 2011 and was promptly made to eat that call first by Operation Twist and then by balls out QE3.  All the while as ZIRP has quietly whirred along in the background for 6 years. (more…)

Is High Yield Telling Us Something?

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The Dow Transports hit a lifetime high today (see, that little sell-off that happened earlier this month – – didn’t mean a thing). The NASDAQ is near its highest level since the Internet bubble. The VIX has lost over half its value in just a couple of weeks.

But in spite of all this, the high-yield market seems to have stalled out. Yes, it had a big bounce from October 15th, just like everything else, but it doesn’t seem as, shall we say, irrationally exuberant as everything else. (more…)