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I’ve got to say, I’m more and more enamored of shorting markets and sectors in which the Fed has little interest in interfering. Crude oil leaps to mind. There are very few charts which have been so steadily bearish as this one (as well as related companies/producers):
We saw SPX made the fifth straight doji or near-doji close yesterday, and all five of the last daily closes have been in the 1938 to 1941 range, which is a rare thing to see. How rare? I’ve had a look back and not as rare as I was expecting. I’m considering these as being a minimum three days tight range consolidation on the daily chart, with a minimum of three doji or near-doji closes in that period. There are sixteen instances from the start of 2009 and they break down as follows
9x – Modest retracement then into new highs
3x – Modest spike then full retrace back into doji area, then new highs
2x – Bear trend rally high
1x – Significant high
1x – Continuation
I’ve been looking for a modest retracement here before a move to new highs, and 75% of these previous examples saw a move down from the consolidation area. 75% of those then went to new highs and the other 25% went much deeper. Of the remainder three made a modest thrust up that was then fully retraced, before going to new highs, and just one of the sixteen continued straight up. (more…)
