Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Never a Straighter Line

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We all crave a market that trends persistently. Over the past six years, with all the insane interventions going on around the world, it’s tough to secure a trend (particularly on the short side) that lasts more than a couple of trading sessions. But stand back, everyone, and take note of what commodities have done consistently for over FIVE MONTHS.

1213-DBC

One can only imagine the billions of dollars lost along the way by people trying to “buy the dip”. It does my heart good to see so many bulls getting blown up. At least there’s one segment of the global economy where bears dominate. God bless them.

Whiplashed

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It can be difficult to identify the pattern for an advance or decline, though at the least it is usually clear in retrospect. Sometimes, as with the move up from 1820, it can be hard to identify even then. This retrace hasn’t been as hard as that, but has been a tough road to identify with these fast whiplash moves and a total of three decent falling channel candidates having established so far. The first that I posted yesterday broke up in the morning, the second had me looking for another two handle move up from the intraday high that never came. The third one however was clear by the end of the day, and with the quality of the trendline anchors and fit so far I’m very confident this is the correct one.

I have channel support in the 2013 area at the moment, declining obviously, and we have see channel support hit this morning. if we see a break below then I’ll be treating that as this channel breaking down, possibly evolving into a falling megaphone, and I’m not sure where the next support above 1998 (50 DMA) might be. Unless we see that break I’m a buyer at channel support, though we may well see a bounce before a hit there. SPX 60min chart: (more…)