SPX closed back over the 5 DMA yesterday and unless a war starts in the next few minutes, looks likely to gap up hard at the open today. Bulls need a green day today to confirm a likely retrace low and after that SPX should be off to the races for the rest of December. If this is a true breakaway gap then the opening gap today will not fill. Daily middle band resistance is at 2045. SPX daily 5DMA chart:
I posted the 60min chart below on twitter last night showing the resistance levels above that the bulls needed to take out to open up a retest of the highs, and we may well gap over all of them this morning. If so I’ll be looking for support at or not far below the declining resistance trendline from the highs, and that closed yesterday at 2030. SPX 60min chart:
I also did a RUT chart last night but didn’t tweet it. I was showing that RUT was leading SPX by a large margin yesterday, and was viewing that as bullish. RUT 60min chart:
The short term downtrend on CL is breaking, and I have my eye on the 38.2% fib retrace of the broken falling wedge at 63 and the 50% fib retrace at 66 as retracement targets before the downtrend resumes. There is an IHS on CL Feb that would target the 64 area on a conviction break over 59. CL daily chart:
Overall CL should still be in an downtrend here, but we are close enough to my target at long term trendline support from 1998 that we should start seeing more two way action to start the bottoming process. At some point in the next few weeks there should be a killer swing long on CL coming. WTIC weekly chart:
I’ve been pushing the idea, and detailing the stats supporting, that December would close strong for several days now, often to a largely incredulous silence (buffs fingernails modestly). I’m not assuming anything here but this looks very promising as the start of that move up. Bulls need a green close today, ideally the gap will not be filled. About half the time the low for today would be at or near the opening print, but I’m hoping to see a partial gap fill attempt into the 2025-30 area near the open to deliver a dip to add long into.
