Another day of selling yesterday, and SPX has lost over 2% over the first three trading days of 2015. This is fairly rare, having only happened eight times in the last 44 years, and it puts SPX on the clock for a possible rarer setup that would make the prospects for the remainder of the year look bleak.

Of those eight examples, three managed to close January above the close on that third day, which in this case would be 2002.61. Those three examples all put in excellent years, with the lowest rising 14.75% and the other two rising slightly over 26%. That is the SPX ‘get out of jail free card’ option.

Of the five others that closed January below the close on the third day, the best two full year performances were 1% and 3% gains, the next two lost 10% and 11% on the year, and the last lost an impressive 39% on the year (2008). If January closes below 2002.61, the historical stats would therefore suggest that the likely best case scenario would be a flat year. (more…)