Friday the Thirteenth

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I’m felling better than I did yesterday. I should be fully recovered by Monday I think and normal service will resume.

SPX has made visual (near miss) hits of the daily upper band yesterday and today. SPX has also made a new all time high today and is at the first major resistance area to look for a possible hard fail. If there is a serious break up here then we would move up to the next big level of resistance. SPX daily chart:

150213 SPX Daily Trendlines BBs MAs

The next big level of resistance is on the weekly chart, at the weekly upper band, now at 2136 and just below main trendline resistance. If hit I would be expecting this area to hold and provide a very nice short entry. SPX weekly chart:

150213 SPX Weekly Trendlines BBs MAs

How will we tell if there is strong rejection at the current highs resistance area? The first very bearish sign would be a break below rising wedge or channel resistance, as that break would confirm this as a rising wedge, and open up wedge retracement targets in the 2051 (38.2% fib), 2038 (50% fib), and 2024 (61.8% fib) areas. If bears could then deliver a conviction break back below the daily middle band, now at 2044, then there would be a possible double top setup that would target the 1866 area on a break back below the last low at 1980.90. That would be a decent match with my main rising support trendline from the 2011 low so I’m watching this resistance test with great interest. SPX 15min chart:

150213 SPX 15min Rising Channel or Wedge

I’m not going to get particularly excited by the short side here until we see a break below rising wedge/channel support, now in the 2075-80 area. Everyone have a great weekend.