In my estimation, the dreary, slogging, multi-month range we’ve been all living through is a gargantuan distribution top which is, thank the maker, starting to roll over. Thanks to energy, I have been enjoying this rollover more than one who simply has been shorting the market in general, but I think other assets will soon join crude oil and its minions on the triple-diamond downslope quite soon.
Looking at the S&P 500’s trio of exponential moving averages (50, 100, and 200), we’re getting tantalizing close. You can almost taste it. Janet is still happy, though. The fraud, initiated by Bernanke and sustained by herself, is holding up at the moment.
However, the Dow Jones (whose components have been more sensitive to currency shenanigans than broader indexes) has already made the leap. The 50 has crossed beneath the 100, and it’s on its way to doing the same to the 200. The coup de grace, of course, would be for the 100 to cross beneath the 200.
I am presently short 104 – – count ’em, 104 – – equity positions. A push on the VIX to the low 20s (oh, say, around 23 or so) should compel me to say “thank you” and consider 2015 complete. Until then, I remain steadfast. Let my enemies not triumph over me.