I was sorting out an issue with my sons’ school this morning so today’s post is both later and shorter than usual. Fortunately the setup really doesn’t get much easier than the choice the market needs to make this morning.
The low yesterday was at the falling channel support I posted yesterday morning, and the low this morning retested that a little lower. So far that channel support has held. If it continues to hold then I currently have falling channel resistance in the 1937/8 area, not far below the daily middle band at 1946. That’s a nice looking target area. The open 15min RSI 14 and RSI 5 signals support this rally scenario.
If the falling channel breaks down then the downside targets open up, and the path to a retest of the 1820 low opens up three to four days earlier than it would if SPX was to retest it within the falling channel. SPX 15min chart:
Today is the other cycle trend day this week so there are 70% odds that today will be dominated by either buyers or sellers. Whichever way this breaks it may be fast and hard.