SPX made my double top target yesterday, overshooting by just a few ticks before bouncing hard overnight. There are two clear options here, both ultimately bearish, and we should see which option we will be taking today.
The more bearish and more likely option in my view is a rally backtest of 1950 area resistance. the key resistance levels here are the 50 hour MA at 1944, declining resistance from 2096, currently in the 1955-60 area, and (daily closing basis) the 5 day MA, which closed yesterday at 1960. as long as these can hold as resistance then I’ll be looking for the next move to be the retest of the October low in the 1820 area.
The more bullish option in the event that SPX breaks over resistance here is a rally continuation into the 2030-40 area and fail there. I’m not thinking that is particularly likely here but there are merits to that retest and we could see it. I’m giving it 30% odds here. SPX 60min chart:
Unnoticed by most the monthly middle band broke at the close on Monday and opened up a strong target at the monthly lower band, currently in the 1838 area and a good match with the more bearish option here. SPX monthly chart:
If we see my more bearish option play out here then I would again ideally be looking for an AM high that dies. We could see a choppy inside day today.
