I was saying a couple of days ago that topping processes tend to start with a hard spike down and well, here we are. SPX and ES broke their rising wedges yesterday and then spent most of the day testing the strong support in the 2035 area that I mentioned in the morning. That has broken overnight and as long as that holds as resistance today, that opens up the downside towards the obvious targets at the big support levels and possible H&S necklines in the 2005 and 1970 areas. SPX 60min chart:
On SPX the 2035/6 support level yesterday was at the 50 hour MA. On ES that level is the weekly pivot at 2026.40 and as long as that area holds as resistance today ES is headed lower. ES Jun 60min (last night’s chart for TAOC subscribers):
Today is a cycle trend day, which means that there are 70% odds that the day will be a strongly directional day dominated by either buyers or sellers. This does not need to be a full trend day. I mention regularly that predicting the direction of these is a very chancy business, but the opening up volume is a tiny 7%, so a trend up day would be hard to deliver today. A full trend down day would be much easier on this setup and we could well see that today. If so I’ll be looking for possible support in the 2005 SPX / 1995 ES area. Everyone have a great long weekend 🙂
One thing to mention. Stan, I and Mike Vacchi from www.princetontrader.com are doing a free educational webinar after the close tonight on Trader Psychology – Pitfalls and Remedies and that should be very well worth watching. If you’re interested you can sign up on this page here.
