A Troubling Breach

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Well, looking at the ES this morning isn’t very encouraging……..

0413-es

For weeks now, we’ve been in a range beneath the broken, ascending trendline that found support at about 2025 (tinted in yellow). Breaking that support would have helped things unravel under the trendline. Instead, we’ve pushed above the resistance trendline (cyan tint). At this point, the only thing that could “save” the bears would be (a) a consistently weak earnings season, coupled with (b) the market’s belief that weak earnings should demand a lower valuation of equities.

Normally, that second item (b) wouldn’t be necessary to even state, but in the bizarre new world we’re in, it’s a requirement.