Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Milestones

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SPX and NDX showed the first significant signs of weakness in a couple of weeks on Friday, with breaks below the support trendlines on decently formed rising wedges from the late June lows. Decent quality 60min RSI 14 sell signals have fixed on both SPX and NDX and that’s promising to deliver some retracement soon, though the swing high may not be in, and I’m still waiting for RUT to join the other two with a trendline support break and negative RSI divergence.

Nonetheless, I think all three indices are likely in a short term topping process here, and am looking for topping patterns to form for a decent retracement of 3% or more starting in the next few days. I’m expecting that to be a dip to buy. SPX 60min chart:

160717 SPX 60min

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Counting on Crude

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Welcome to a new week, everyone. Looking at the intraday chart of the ES, it seems we’ve gone from a “straight up” mode (in green) to another “well, now what?” mode. There’s clearly nothing particularly bearish about this; it’s merely a point of uncertainty which, barring another completely fake, self-serving 37 minute coup d’etat somewhere, is dependent on earnings.

0717-es

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The Silent Treatment: Sunday

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I’m not going to do any videos this weekend. Instead, I’m going to share a portion of the positions which I am presently short. Everyone, and I mean everyone, is crazy-eyed bullish (from Dennis Gartman to Elliott Wave International), and the VIX has been banged down to the lowest level in years. If this is a bullish formula for you, terrific. For me, I’m keeping the ursine faith. Here are Sunday’s selections:

0716-20 (more…)