Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Crude Again

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I did a post yesterday which stated, “The bull market in energy that started January 20th is over. I can’t be more plain about it.”. I was surprised at the reaction. There was a lot of jeering and mocking, and a new troll appeared to slam me (which got upvotes from some Slopers I thought were a bit more loyal than that).

And yet with a HUGE explosion higher today across the board, thanks to a killer jobs report, here’s what crude is doing:

0708-crud

Imagine what it would be doing in a weak market.

Anyway, it’s nice to know who my true friends are on my own blog. Sheesh. I’m going to keep focusing on energy shorts.

Moment of Truth Time

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Well I was doubtful about the bears holding it in yesterday but they did. None of SPX, RUT or NDX managed a bullish break and there are now very decent topping setups here on all three to deliver a solid retracement of the move up from last week’s low, if resistance can hold again today.

Lately an expectation that the bears would show up to work sober two days running has been overoptimistic, and if this was a bull setup I’d be calling 80% odds that this setup would deliver, but this is the bears, and the NFP numbers may make the decision before the open, so I’m giving 60/40 odds in favor of the bears that this topping setup plays out, with the note that on a break up we would likely see SPX test the all time high at 2134 in the near future.

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Flags

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ES didn’t quite make it to the double pivot support yesterday, though the low at 2066 was arguably a test of monthly pivot support at 2062.5, and might be close enough. Obviously the SPX daily middle band held as support at the close and the intraday low was at a test of the 50dma. Can we see more downside?

Maybe, though the obvious next move on the SPX daily chart points to a retest of the 2108 high, and on a sustained break above 2108, to megaphone resistance in the high 2120s, and that may well be the target for this move up from yesterday’s low. In effect that would be a test of the all time high at 2134. SPX daily chart:

160706C SPX Daily

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