The SPX high window closed on Friday, SPX filled the open breakaway gap at 2164.5 and SPX closed under the daily middle band on Wednesday through Friday last week. We should see a decline here, though I’m concerned that this is all taking too long, and the next low window at the start of next week isn’t moving back. If SPX is to make my target trendline in the 2080 area then it needs to get moving. Otherwise there’s a possibility that we see a smaller decline and spend September just gently topping, which would be a much less interesting alternative. SPX daily chart:
The historical stats today lean bullish and lean bearish tomorrow. I’m using the 15min charts that I did for SPX, NDX and RUT last night for subscribers to the Trader’s Chart Service at theartofchart.net. I was looking at rally targets in the 2178-81 area when I did these charts last night and we’re testing that area now. The 50 hour MA at 2181 needs to be decent resistance here, and SPX needs to close under the daily middle band at 2177/8 today. A sustained break over 2181 would be a concern as it would invite another possible test of the all time high. SPX 15min chart:
NDX hasn’t quite reached the 4800 area target I gave and might need to. NDX 15min chart:
RUT is more than halfway back to megaphone resistance. Bears need a reversal soon and a break down ideally as otherwise this setup very much suggests a high retest. RUT 15min chart:
Bears should be in the driving seat now and I’m hoping they get moving seriously today, or tomorrow at the latest. On a sustained break back over 2182 SPX and conversion to support we could still see yet another high retest. Until we see that though, SPX is currently testing the likely HOD area for today at that resistance.