Sunday Stroll through Index Park

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Based on what I saw during my visit last night, Disneyland’s newest ride is the Leap Over an Opioid Addict attraction just outside the park. They were all white males around thirty years old or so, sprawled out on the ground. At least it was more engaging than the boring Monsters Inc. ride inside the park itself.

But that’s not why we’re here. It’s a Sunday morning, and I’m out of posts (except for one waiting in the wings for the appropriate afternoon), so I’ll cobble one together. It isn’t easy, though. See, here’s what a normal market looks like:


Volatile. Opportunity-rich. A roller coaster of price discovery. The above chart is the ETF for the small caps, symbol IWM. Here’s the exact same market recently:


Ummm. I don’t think “boring” is strong enough a word.

Of course, about a month ago, it seemed things wouldn’t be boring anymore, what with the excitement around yet another war and possibly nuclear missiles flying around. And where was Ground Zero for all this potential glassing of the earth? South Korea! And how terrified is South Korea about such a catastrophe? See for yourself!


Looks awfully bullish to me, wouldn’t you say? The above is the Kospi 200 Index, and as it leaps from lifetime high to lifetime high, it sounds like the equity markets (around the world, actually) are declaring Kim Jung Un to be full of pudding and rib eye, but little else of note.

Sticking around that Asian neighborhood, however, it seems to me that Jakarta’s own equity market is looking awfully terminal vis a vis its triangle.


And, looking northward to Hong Kong, its broad equity market has already broken its long-term trendline. The importance of this trendline is affirmed by the creepily obedient price behavior beneath the now-broken trendline, as its role has switched from support to resistance.


OK, let’s fly thousands of miles westward to Europe. Check out the Amsterdam Index (thank you, SlopeCharts!) As with Jakarta, the pattern is well-formed and extremely high in the context of its long-term behavior.


OK, enough of these zany markets none of us trade. I’m far more interested in the MidCap 400, against which I have March 2018 puts. I would submit to you that the resisting trendline is red, having held for so long, is a formidable foe to further upside.


Looking closer, you can see there’s easily 100 points of downside even without breaking medium-range support, let alone actually getting hit with a true trend change.

slopechart_$MID (1)

It would seem poetic to me if, in the broadest of views, the markets adhered to the Fibonacci retracements that I’ve been watching. Admittedly, the S&P 500 has exceeded my 161.8% target, but not by much………three-tenths of a single percent right now. The Dow, on the other hand, hasn’t crossed its line yet, and observing the prior two bull market peaks, it would seem fitting, as I just suggested, so this third bubble (which is the “everything” bubble) to terminate at this newest and highest of horizontals.