June Takes a Bite out of AAPL (by MoneyMiser21)

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Southern California experiences a “May gray, June gloom” weather effect. Up north in Cupertino, America’s favorite smartphone maker experiences a similar phenomenon with its stock price.

In the past ten years, AAPL closed beneath its June options expiration (OpEx) open (Mid-May to Mid-June) six out of ten times.

And when we focus on the past five years’ June OpEx periods, the bears won four out of those five times.

A major reason behind the bearishness is Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers’ Conference (WWDC), which is almost always held in June.

Since 2005, AAPL closed every week red except one (11-1 to the bears), and that was 2014 when the 7-for-1 stock split took place shortly after the WWDC.

Bears should salivate seeing the following stats on WWDC week:

1. 2005 (June 6-10)

a. Open: 5.48
b. Close: 5.12
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 5.52-5.07 (Range equals to -8.1% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -6.57%

2. 2006 (August 7-11)

a. Open: 9.68
b. Close: 9.09
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 9.94-8.94 (Range equals -10.06% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -6.09%

3. 2007 (June 11-15)

a. Open: 18.00
b. Close: 17.21
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 18.02-16.49 (Range equals -8.49% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -4.39%

4. 2008 (June 9-13)

a. Open: 26.40
b. Close: 24.62
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 26.68-23.62 (Range equals -11.47% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -6.74%

5. 2009 (June 8-12)

a. Open: 20.55
b. Close: 19.57
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 20.65-19.43 (Range equals -5.91% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -4.77%

6. 2010 (June 7-11)

a. Open: 36.90
b. Close: 36.22
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 37.02-34.60 (Range equals -6.54% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -1.84%

7. 2011 (June 6-10)

a. Open: 49.39
b. Close: 46.56
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 49.58-46.50 (Range equals -6.21% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -5.73%

8. 2012 (June 11-15)

a. Open: 83.96
b. Close: 82.02
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 84.07-80.96 (Range equals -3.70% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -2.31%

9. 2013 (June 10-14)

a. Open: 63.53
b. Close: 61.44
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 64.15-61.21 (Range equals -4.58% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -3.29%

**10. 2014 (June 2-6)

a. Open: 90.57
b. Close: 92.22
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 93.04-88.93 (Range equals +4.42% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: +1.82%

11. 2015 (June 8-12)

a. Open: 128.94
b. Close: 127.17
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 130.18-125.62 (Range equals -3.50% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -1.37%

12. 2016 (June 13-17)

a. Open: 98.69
b. Close: 95.33
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 99.12-95.30 (Range equals -3.85% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -3.40%

13. 2017 (June 5-9)

a. Open: 154.34
b. Close: 148.98
c. Week’s High-to-Low: 155.98-146.02 (Range equals -6.38% of high of week)
d. Percent change from week’s open to close: -3.47%

Rare to find a set up with a win percentage of 90% or better, but this is one of those diamonds in the rough part of Summer.

This year’s WWDC takes place in San Jose June 4-8.

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