U.S. 2, 5, 10 and 30-year Bonds have been driving through prior resistance and inching upwards since the end of 2018, as shown on the following monthly charts.
Meanwhile, the following monthly SPX:VIX ratio chart shows that price has stalled just below the 200 “New Bull Market” level.
I anticipate that we’ll likely see one last-gasp push in equities (SPX and other major indices) to, possibly a slightly higher all-time high, before we see a meaningful pullback/correction. Under that scenario, look for the SPX:VIX to break and hold above 200 and, potentially, retest the 280 all-time ratio high.
However, if the SPX:VIX fails to break and hold above 200 on an SPX rally, then I’d anticipate that we won’t see a retest of the prior SPX high set in September 2018, but a fizzle before then, instead.
Either way, I anticipate that bonds will continue to gain ground…albeit perhaps slowly, but steadily.
Of note, is this astute observation from Slope of Hope’s, Tim Knight…
I anticipate that a recession is on the way, if not this year, then likely next year…but likely slowing this year. I understand that Europe, China, Canada, and others are all slowing now. Watch the bond markets for clues and continued strength!