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All right, it’s time for me to get serious about doing my MMT post, so I need to focus on that. Perhaps you wanted a market update of some kind, but honestly, not a thing has changed for me, except I’ve dropped my exposure a little bit (from 200% to 190%, still entirely short – – obviously). But I’ve said all I needed to say over the weekend, so it’s time to write.
After days of virtually nonstop reading, I finally plowed my way through my MMT book. I’m not sure how long it’ll take me to do a write-up, but it’s definitely going to be a Best of Slope entry.
Somewhat related to this is the graph I just saw this morning:
I was terribly interested in this article posted over at ZeroHedge, which described at some length that, as obsessed as the media is with the inverted yield curve, there was actually a far more effective “predictor” of future economic ups and downs in the form of the “forward” 3 month rate.
I’ve done some digging, and I haven’t found it in SlopeCharts, but I did stumbled upon an interesting 5 year version of this, which effectively predicts forthcoming inflation rates. As you can plainly see, it went into an absolute free-fall during the 2008 financial crisis (symbol is FR:T5YIFR)
(more…)This entire trade war topic is beginning to resemble a tragicomedy.
Every weekday morning, I play a little mental game with myself in which I guess what the ES is going to be doing, or at least whether it’l be green or red. Even though the market instantly plunged 40 points when we opened Sunday afternoon, my guess was “green”, and there it was:
