This is a very simplistic look at world markets and current world trade wars…sometimes the K.I.S.S. principle can be useful.
Take a look at the thumbnail charts (monthly timeframe) of the following major world indices:
- SPX – USA
- FTSE 100 – UK
- DAX – Germany
- CAC – France
- FTSE MIB – Italy
- IBEX – Spain
- SSEC – China
- NIKK – Japan
It’s pretty easy to see, at a glance, whose equity markets have led and whose have lagged, over the past couple of decades (since around 2000).
Which one do you think could best weather prolonged trade wars, especially if they escalate, as well as a possible substantial loss of market capital from their current levels? Which market has most benefited from its central bank’s monetary and political fiscal stimulus policies since the 2008/09 financial crisis?
The answer to those simple questions will tell you who most needs a trade deal in the near term…and I don’t think it’s the USA. My two cents’ worth, from a chartist’s perspective, says it’s in the strongest position in this regard.