Fund Thoughts

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Another post thoughtfully composed from the 3 square inches provided on a Southwest Airlines seat. Here we go! This one is focused on Exchange Traded Funds.

First up is gold, by way of GLD, which is in sorry shape (a particular fixation of fellow Sloper TNRevolution). I’d say gold is on a pathway to weakness, which is probably baffling to those of us staring at the $23 trillion in US debt and infinite QE, but there you have it.

slopechart GLD

As such, it seems that gold miners are at the cusp of a more meaningful breakdown. In any of the graphs of this post with moving averages, they are all the same trio: 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages.

slopechart GDX

If miners do indeed fall to pieces, naturally the symbol DUST will rip higher. It’s getting very close to a breakout above that horizontal that I’ve marked.

slopechart DUST


slopechart XME

Switching gears, let’s glance at bonds. The TLT has been grinding lower for many weeks. That red horizontal is fairly important support. If there are any equity bears on the planet left besides myself, we really need to see bonds firm up and rally from these levels.

slopechart TLT

Since bonds have been so weak, interest rates have been firming up (and the yield curve has been normalizing), so banks, in turn, have been gaining strength. This is another feature in the bullish cap, which is already crammed full with enough features to take flight.

slopechart KBE

Lastly, our old friend Consumer Staples continues to inch lower. We aren’t close to breaking that horizontal yet, but it remains a genuine possibility. Hope springs eternal in the bearish breast.

slopechart XLP