Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Really Big Earnings Season

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The current earnings reports that begin rolling out this week will be among the most important since the financial crisis, if not even before that.  To explain why, let us start with some background data.  Exhibit 1 plots the three major stock market indexes from the start of the year through the close on July 10, 2020.  Although all three indexes have bounced back from the depths of the Covid crash, there is a marked discrepancy between them.  That discrepancy is due to the fact much of the recovery from the low point can be attributed to a relatively few big tech stocks that rose dramatically.  Although the great majority of stocks have fallen year to date, some of the biggest tech companies have risen enough to pull up the indexes.  The Dow lags because it contains fewer tech companies and because it weights them less than their market value.

season earnings
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