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Keep your eye on volatility. My view is that the $VIX has important horizontal support at 19.99, and a break above the descending trendline I’ve drawn (red circle on right) could spell an important turning point as we head toward September, traditionally the weakest month of the year.
Even though this market feels incredibly “stuck” and under-the-thumb of the Fed, I have faith in the gargantuan cycles of price history, Powell be damned. Here below are two important equity indexes over a period if decades, each divided by the M2 money supply, thus providing a more realistic picture of values and trends.
Mornin’, everyone.
It’s another pitch-black pre-dawn here in bucolic Palo Alto. We find ourselves at the end of yet another trading week, with the indexes, by and large, spoon-feeding the bulls, as codified by Dual Mandate. Yet hope springs eternal, particularly here in the hallowed halls of Slope.
The first thing I’d note is that the US dollar continues to grind its way lower against the Yen. Oddly, the prospects of an island-nation of senior citizens apparently beats the pants off our once-great Republic. The move is slow, but seems resolute. I believe this will be important.
