In precisely eight weeks, polls will be closing and results are going to start trickling in for the most important election of our lifetimes. As I’ve said countless times, I want to avoid political discussion on my website (although some Slopers remain non-compliant). This post isn’t about politics. It’s about your personal prediction of the outcome and its immediate effect on the equity markets.
I have just two questions for you. One of them involves who you think will win. Now let me be very, very clear about this. This is not about who you WANT to win. It’s about who you THINK will win. As in, who would you bet money on winning?
Let’s say, as a purely hypothetical example that I, Tim Knight, thought Donald Trump was the worst President in history and that he should be killed on live television in front of his family. But let’s also say that I, Tim Knight, believed he was going to win the election bigly. In that instance, I would NOT vote based on my political beliefs, but instead on my prediction. I would click “Trump Landslide“. That would be my bet. Not my wish. My bet. Got it?
Having said that, please click the radio button of what you believe will happen on Tuesday, November 3rd.
Good. Now the second question: compared to where the U.S. stock market is today, where do you think equities will be a few days after the election? I want to emphasize, once again, this isn’t about what you want.
Let’s use me as an example again. As you well know, what I would love to see is a Dow at 500 and every Robinhood account at $0, with mass bull suicides. But let’s say that I actually believed the Dow was going to hit lifetime highs. I would, with a heavy heart, click Much Higher than Now. So I’d like you also, in the same fashion, offer up your own prediction.
All right, good job! It’ll be interested to see where things actually wind up. Hopefully I’ll remember to dig this post up on that fateful week, and we can see how we did as a group. So if you didn’t vote already, please do!