I offer you greetings, once again, from the empty, eerie parking garage of the Stanford Shopping Center. Once the bustling destination for vapid trophy wives and desperately insecure men, this shrine to consumerism has been unsullied by human feet for half a year, except those of myself and the inhuman feet of my dog pack.
As many decades as I’ve been doing this charting nonsense, I still marvel at the simple beauty of things such as role reversal. Support becomes resistance. Resistance becomes support. See see that here with the /RTY, which gave the horizontal line which I drew long ago the kind of respect it deserves.
The key feature, longer-term, on the small caps, is that the multi-trillion dollar effort by the Fed has accomplished nothing except carve out a lower high. My delightful pessimism that I’ve been trumpeting again and again – – there will be NO cure, there will be NO stimulus, there will be NO lasting recovery – – still has a chance. 99.99999999% want some kind of “recovery” irrespective of its falsehood and source. The Apocalypse is more my style.
In recent days, “stimulus hopes” has been the big message. Mnuchin and Pelosi. Pelosi and Mnuchin. What’s going on behind those doors? Let’s not think about it. There are 19 days until the most consequential election of the past 160 years. No one is going to be stimulating anyone.
Here’s the key thing, though, from my point of view: this basing pattern. Over the course of many weeks, this pattern was hammered out, tick by tick. It finally broken out, and its clarity was unmistakable. As I sit here in the darkness, this pattern remains unviolated. It needs to be broken. Otherwise, this is just the pause that refreshes.
Identical to the ES, the NQ is sporting precisely the same setup, and there is precisely the same requirement to break these fraudmeisters.
On a shorter-term scale, patterns have been playing out beautifully as well. Here is the NQ over the past few days. It wasn’t that long ago that a big event from Apple would have set the world on fire. They had one yesterday, and no one gave a flying crap. The reaction was identical to their last Big Event, where they introduced some stupid watch or something. Apple is a tired, lumbering, vastly-overpriced slow-growth behemoth. No one cares anymore. They simply exist to keep feeding the pathetic addictions of the bored masses.
The only strength right now is seen with bonds. This has more work to do, but at least it is heading the right direction. The notion of bonds falling (and, thus, interest rates strengthening) doesn’t seem sustainable to me. The world has never lassoed itself to the kind of debt we see today. It will never be paid back, at least not in any legitimate way. In the end, it will be a global fiscal catastrophe – – an unintentional jubilee – – but it will only come when they can’t prevent it from coming. In other words, after it’s far, far too late.
As for myself, I am 140% committed with 48 shorts. I have 45 other potential positions waiting in the wings. I look toward the election with excitement and anticipation. The personality disorders of a handful of people here concerns me, so we’ll have to see how I manage that raucous occasion, as well as its likely insane aftermath.
Don’t turn that dial.