My biggest put position is energy, by way of XLE. These are June puts, and I’m hanging on as long as I possibly can.
Semiconductors are weakening, although still very safely ensconced within the confines of a long-term ascending channel. Break it, and doom is nigh.
The abject wackiness of the market (thanks, GME!) can be clearly seen via retail, whose symbol is XRT.
What am I reminded of when I see a chart like this? The crack-up boom, my friends. (Rest in peace, Bruno).
The crack-up boom occurs when central banks chooses, and sticks with, the first option. Economist Friedrich Hayek famously described this situation as like grabbing a “tiger by the tail”; once the central bank decides to accelerate the process of credit expansion and inflation in order to head off any recession risk, then it continually faces the same choice of either accelerating the process further or facing an ever greater risk of recession as distortions build in the real economy.