Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Sad Tale of M.L.O.T.T.

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In trading, few things hurt worse than money left on the table. (In the unlikely event any of you are unacquainted with this term, it refers to profits forsaken because you were too impatient, scared, or what-have-you and missed out on extra money).

It’s virtually a truism in trading that you’ll score 8% on a given trade and it goes on to throw off 90% in gains. It happens all the time, but it happens CONSTANTLY in highly opportunistic and volatile markets like this one.

I am no stranger to this situation, particularly since my own emotional and psychological makeup doesn’t lend itself to – – how shall we put this? – – stalwart, steadfast, fearless determination. I prefer to slip on a pink taffeta dress, maybe some matching pantyhose, and scurry around closing anything that has a profit.

I’m exaggerating a bit (except for the clothes part), but just in recent weeks, the spreadsheet below shows the positions I have CLOSED, with the “entry price” reflecting whatever price I got when I closed them. Shield your eyes, Frank.

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Taking Stock

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In my post on Friday 6th August last year I was looking at a possible backtest scenario on SPX that could be setting up and I reviewed how that is looking on my first post this year, as I was thinking, and am still thinking, that backtest may well be delivered over the next few weeks.

That backtest would be of a huge resistance trendline on SPX that broke at the end of 2020 / start of 2021, and is currently in the 3850 – 3900 area. The break over that trendline may have been a break up over a rising megaphone resistance trendline with a target in the mid 6000s on SPX , but if that is the case, to confirm that target, the trendline would need to be backtested and hold into new all time highs on SPX.

Obviously the strength of this decline so far in January has surprised most, so I’d like today to review what the decline so far is telling us, and to talk about the monthly SPX chart.

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