As frustrating and occasionally terrifying as this market can be over the past month, I am truly liking how equities are behaving. The /ES over the past week has been borderline comic, especially with that absurd run-up in the last few minutes of Friday. Predictably, we have been slipping away from the peak of the range, even though – – as we did last Wednesday – – the bulls try to probe higher and breakout, which didn’t work.
The NQ is virtually a carbon copy, although it is just a touch weaker than the ES. Still, you can overlay these markets with very little difference between the two of them.
It isn’t the intraday 5 day charts that excites me, however, but what’s been going on with the daily. Here is the /ES on a candlestick basis, illustrating the “rolling over” of the market over the past couple of months, and the important trendline failure.
On a longer-term time scale, you can see how nose-bleedingly-lofty the market remains, in spite of extraordinarily myopic “analysts” suggesting what a cheap bar-goon stocks are, now that they are only grotesquely overvalued instead of clinically psychotically overvalued.
For myself, I remain aggressively short, although I do have some cash I can deploy on fresh positions this morning. I’m having second thoughts about keeping my AAPL puts, merely because I’d prefer to be short stuff which is actually weak and vulnerable rather than being the strongest beast on the planet. And, finally, I am particularly bearish on energy stocks, which I have expressed by way of XOP and XLE.
Best of luck out there; I suspect this week is going to be just about as exciting and tumultuous as the one prior.
