It’s been quite a few months for Tesla. Let’s review these events, which I’ve circled. Follow along from left to right:
Circle One: This was the price peak at 1243.49, which I suspect will be the highest price for years to come, if not forever. This was a perfect tag of the long-term trendline. This was prediction success #1 for me.
Circle Two: After the gap down (price gap value=1208.00) the price fell hard, got bought by people who figured the stock was “on sale”, and got very close to the price gap before resuming its fall. This was prediction success #2 for me.
Circle Three: The stock fell hard during Elon’s heavy selling of his own personal TSLA holdings. I called for a fall down to 910, but it actually got as low as 886. This was prediction sort-of kind-of success #3 for me.
Circle Four: Then TSLA started ascending to what I figured would be another “lower higher” with the trendline as resistance. That’s precisely what happened. This was prediction success #4 for me.
Yellow Tint: This was Monday morning (the start of the trading week), in which the stock vaulted over its trendline on huge volume. This was a big “miss” on my part (although I had no position; indeed, I was never positioned for ANY of these moves) although I think we can agree that the news hit the entire world by surprise.
What’s interesting is what happened next. The entire up-move is gone! Not just gone, but gone in a matter of hours, and now at prices far lower than the gap!
So whatever brain-trusts rushed in and bought the stock at $1208.00 (which was PRECISELY the gap) are looking at huge losses already, particularly the dummies at WSB bought TSLA $1200 calls that expired Friday (in the words, today). All they got out of the deal was some cool loss porn, and that don’t pay the rent.
