Ever since last week, the market has been slicing the heads off bears left and right, with the Dow up thousands of points and the ES up about three hundred .It’s been unrelenting.

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Ever since last week, the market has been slicing the heads off bears left and right, with the Dow up thousands of points and the ES up about three hundred .It’s been unrelenting.

SPX closed below the main SPX support/resistance trendline at the end of last week. This trendline has broken twice since 2009, and both times SPX followed through hard. In 2011 SPX broke very hard through it and never broke back over it until until 2020. In 2020 SPX broke over it, then closed the next week back below, and then didn’t close back below it again until last week. This is too limited a sample to extrapolate much from but there is precedent for failing to confirm the break the following week and then following through the break and so the likely weekly close back above today has precedent from 2020 and is not an obviously bullish development.
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