Howdy Duty

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Good morning, everyone. I’d like to talk about the intraday chart below of the /ES, which I think might be important, or at least interesting:

Where are the elements:

  1. The rectangle on the left shows when the /ES explosively vaulted above its major Fibonacci retracement level (due to the last Powell press conference, comically) and then failed, commencing that nice hard fall we experienced for a week;
  2. The horizontal line in the middle of the chart defines the bullish basing pattern I’ve been wringing my hands about, and which has made Thursday, Monday, and yesterday so goddamned miserable;
  3. The rectangle on the right shows the /ES vaulting above the line stated in (2) and subsequently failing it.

It goes without saying I am drawing a parallels between the opposite rectangles. Here, incidentally, is the half-hour bar chart of the /ES when it inexplicably roared higher when Powell’s ancient lips were mouthing lies, followed by the realization that we’re all entirely screwed.

These lines have power and meaning. They have power as support, and as resistance, and when they are struggling with direction, they have power as magnets. Take note of the mayhem that has been taking place with the most recent line. It’s remarkable, and I would point out this is NOT a Fibonacci line, but a line of my own choosing, created to define the bullish base beneath.

If the bullish base is unclear to you, I’ll hand you my x-ray goggles:

I am still extraordinarily light with respect to positioning. My personal portfolio is 100% cash (pity, huh? but understandably) and my main portfolio is 29% cash. My Bear Pen has 73 items, 28 of which I’m actually short. The thing is, a lot of my favorite charts (like, say, NVDA) are in a no man’s land of being too far away from their resistance to be appealing, so frankly I’m too scared to take a bearish stance. Thus, I stick with those that already seem “ready”.

I hope we collectively have a good day. It’s at least off to a proper start.