Hello, everyone, from the delicious dark and quiet suburban paradise of Palo Alto. True to form, the nation’s pundits and basement traders are loudly touting how the market is going STRAIGHT UP from these levels. Indeed, even on the likes of ZeroHedge are featuring prominent articles about……..
- the market is really, really, really oversold;
- the corporate swine will start buying literally billions of dollars of their own stock, every single weekday, with hundreds and hundreds of billions already approved by corporate boards;
- “everyone is bearish” (AKA more than 1% of the public)
I am human, more or less, and I am prone to worry and fear more than most. Thus, articles like this, as well as permabulls here on Slope warning me about a “face-ripping rally” (a term I absolutely detest and compels me to assume the writer of the phrase is an utter Bozo) cause me no small amount of concern that my insanely-aggressive bearish portfolio might be in some horrible trouble. Indeed, as the /ES was chugging along through the night, it seemed to be hammering out a base for some genuine awfulness.
As I stand here two full hours before the opening bell, it looks to me that the bulls, in their typical flaccid form, are gasping and wheezing and utterly failing, because they can’t even tie their fucking shoes in the morning without the help of Jerome Powell. You’ve got to understand, equity bulls are like small children. They’re loud, terribly self-confident, but actually are incapable of doing anything on their own. Like insipid spoiled brats, they are absolutely dependent upon the mercies of their master, the Federal Reserve, to dole out favors, while the adults in the room (the likes of me and my fellow bears) can only shake our heads in morbid revulsion.
A farther-out picture of the /ES illustrates the so-called “oversold” state of the market. It is as low as it has been at any point this year.
But the cold fact of the matter is that the chart below is SCREAMING to collapse. I have 39 different bearish positions, and all of them are so sensuous and provocative as to be borderline pornographic. I would further add to the whining toddlers that haven’t felt a day of pain in the past thirteen years, that Powell is in all likelihood going to yank the ripcord on Wednesday.
I’ll close by saying that, since I look at hundreds and hundreds of charts every single day, I would struck by how, even at these preposterously-elevated levels, many stocks have already suffered 50%, 70%, and even 90%+ losses. There has been a sweeping bear market going on underneath our feet for many months, and the rot is severe.
There’s one thing and only one thing propping the market up at this point, and its name is Apple. And what Tim Cook will realize, if there’s any justice in the heavens above, is that I’m the guy on the other side of that glory hole’s wall, and I’m awfully pissed off. Plus…….I’ve got a strong grip.
