There were times, earlier this year, that I would scold myself for being so timid with my options purchases. What was I doing, I would ask myself, buying options that had so much time on them, when other folks were getting options that were (in percentage terms) performing way better than mine, since they had taken a more aggressive stance with respect to price and time?
Well, I’m having no such self-flagellation lately, since just about the only good thing I can say about my positions is that they had a crap-load of time on them, which makes a horrible day like today, and a horrible period like that past five WEEKS, bearable. I have lightened up somewhat (15% cash now) but, generally speaking, am still poised for weakness, which should happen sometime before we have colonized Mars.
The diamond pattern on the /ES had given me some renewed hope this weekend, but it basically got wrecked when the lovely Mary Daly said the right words (see arrow) to goose the market into a buying frenzy. So the diamond pattern is utterly trashed at this point.
Speaking of diamonds, one look at the Dow 30 fund DIA shows how dangerously close we are to wrecking the bear market’s steady series of lower highs.
What also worries me (as if this all wasn’t bad enough) is how the /NQ is behaving very similar to what it was doing during the summer, just before its big lunge higher. In each instance, we had a failed bullish breakout, but in the end, it didn’t matter.
In short, life has sucked for the bears since October 13th, and here we are, getting close to December, without any clear sign of relief in sight. As I wrap up this post, my positioning hasn’t changed much, but in summary:
- 25 bearish positions;
- Average expiration date 130 days from now (roughly next April);
- 15% cash;
- 76% intrinsic value overall; 24% time premium
