A follow up to the post from two weeks ago:
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
False Dawn
I think a bounce started on Friday. /ES saw three weeks of sideways consolidation between 3800-3900, after breaking back under 3900 in mid-December. I had hoped for a short term thrust lower last week to put in a noticeable short term bottom. That didn’t happen. What we got instead was the 3800 level holding as support. There is very little support at the 3800 level. I see it as a short term phenomenon.
First, let’s take a look at the daily chart of SPY below. Highlighted in red are the three clusters of monthly POCs that I consider to be key levels of support/resistance. Also noted are monthly value high/low for SPY. Value high is at 397.28, and value low is at 376.21. The good news for bears is that under the lows of the past few weeks, there is really no meaningful support for quite some time. For the moment though, I think the bounce needs to be respected until the recent lows give way.
(more…)First Slim of the Year
And Yet Another EV Wipeout!
Top of the Range
I don’t think I want to see the number 3800 again in my life, unless we’re ultimately talking about it as resistance. This Fibonacci level has served as an iron-clad wall for weeks on end, and Friday was no different. We got our jobs report, rallied, burned off the entire rally in less than an hour, and then went skyrocketing the rest of the day. Had I not planted my bearish bottom in an airplane seat fifteen minutes before the closing bell, we would have ended at the day’s high.
