I’ve always liked Rivian, and I’ve been mentioning its nascent bottoming pattern here and on tastylive frequently. It has finally completed and is zipping higher.
![](https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/rivn-640x400.png)
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I’ve always liked Rivian, and I’ve been mentioning its nascent bottoming pattern here and on tastylive frequently. It has finally completed and is zipping higher.
Welcome to the second half of 2023. If my self-confidence and excitement were measured by way of the VIX, it would probably be at 3.12 right now. Take that for what you will. Pre-market, on this holiday-shortened trading day, the /ES has been slumbering around all night and day in a tiny ten point range.
Note from Tim: the Sloper known as Silver Singularity was kind enough to construct an epic post, which I am breaking into two parts. The second part, which is a doozy, comes out tomorrow. Everyone be sure to thank SS for his post, and encourage him to keep at it!
Let’s start by the guiding principle. What can we expect from a leveraged economy in a rising interest rate environment using current and past data/cycles?
Having lived my whole career as a trader in a low interest rate environment combined with monetary stimulus and listening for a long time to people like Peter Schiff, I was finding myself in the camp that the FED and the ECB were toast.
That is to say they, too, were in the same predicament as the BOJ and couldn’t raise interest rates anymore… even a tiny bit.
(more…)Whenever I’m feeling particularly nostalgic or, as recently, severely melancholic, I get out my old high school yearbook from when I was a senior. In the words of Paul Simon:
Sonny sits by his window and thinks to himself How it's strange that some rooms are like cages Sonny's yearbook from high school Is down from the shelf And he idly thumbs through the pages Some have died Some have fled from themselves Or struggled from here to get there Sonny wanders beyond his interior walls Runs his hand through his thinning brown hair
My hair isn’t thinning, but the rest of the imagery is spot-on.
(more…)