Perhaps my most successful completely wild guess has been with the Geo Group, the private prison maker which investors embraced the moment Trump won, since they figured he’d dump billions of dollars of sweet government revenue onto private prison owners since, well, these people who pick strawberries aren’t going to detain themselves, ya know. I bought puts immediately following the inauguration, and it’s been smooth sailing ever since.
These June puts are up 33%, and the tough part is to know how long to hold this position, because, like I said, it was just a wild guess and not based on any actual pattern with a proper price target. I suppose I’ll just keep cranking the stop-loss down, since there are 135 days left and these options are almost pure intrinsic value at this point.
