Precisely seven days ago, the entire market was exploding higher in exultation that, gosh darn it, tariffs would be “narrow” and “focused.” Hurray! Huzzah! ES up 70!
Of course, that simply led to peaks over the next day or two which made killing bulls like shooting fish in a barrel, which is of course why some of us are here on Earth. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, which I have pleaded with folks to use as a harbinger of bad times to come, crumbles away.
Which means notices such as this, from four months ago, have disappeared.
I had called for 5800 on the S&P 500 as a peak (cash market), which was almost perfect. It tagged the neckline, and then barf-o-rama.
The /NQ is getting hit even harder, as absurdly overvalued tech stocks execute the first 10% of their ultimate plunge.
I like the shape of small caps in particular. The /RTY futures hammered out a simply beautiful head and shoulders top.
The weekly of the /RTY (as opposed to above’s daily) illustrates the magnitude of the potential drop.
While all of this is going on, a golden spike is getting shoved into Jerome Powell’s eyeballs. We have, yes, yet another record high. Take THAT, you Fed turds!
The VIX has been an invaluable guide. After my exceptionally important post about the VIX in mid-March, it unveiled its path perfectly. Judging from the higher highs that have been happening, I wouldn’t be surprised to see us in the lower 30s within a couple of weeks.
The real transition that has taken place is to Make Shorting Great Again, which is certainly has become. Who knew?
