Welcome to the final full session Friday of 2025. It’s fairly quite this morning, with equity futures marginally higher but, longer-term, slowly weakening. The /RTY, for instance, is up 0.19% as I’m typing this but is well-positioned to fall for the balance of the year.
The /NQ has hammered out a steady series of lower lows and lower highs.
The same holds true for the /ES.
One of the more interesting developments lately (about which I recently wrote a premium post) is the bond market, which has completed a tidy H&S reversal pattern. I bought June 2026 puts on TLT yesterday and will augment that trade if the prices start moving away from this reversal pattern.
I would also note that for what feels like the first time this century, palladium is actually down a little. The unrelenting rally has finally taken a pause, as the price action has morphed from “not a downtick in sight” (arrow) to equilibrium.
I’ve got 30 short positions right now, none of which seem to be in harm’s way pre-opening. Good luck out there!
