Over the past two years (roughly from early 2024 onward), financial analyst Tom Lee of Fundstrat has issued several optimistic Bitcoin price predictions that significantly overshot actual market performance. Below, I’ve compiled some of his most notable misses, focusing on targets he set for 2024 and 2025, along with what actually happened to Bitcoin’s price based on reported data. These are drawn from public statements and interviews he made during this period.
Key Misses for 2024 Targets
- Early 2024 prediction for mid-2024: Lee forecasted Bitcoin reaching $140,000 to $180,000 by April 2024 (around the Bitcoin halving event). Actual: Bitcoin traded in the $60,000-$70,000 range in April 2024, missing the target by over 50%.
To be fair, Lee did correctly predict Bitcoin hitting $100,000 sometime in 2024 (achieved in December 2024), but his more aggressive mid-year targets were way off.
Key Misses for 2025 Targets
Lee repeatedly doubled down on high six-figure predictions for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 throughout 2024 and 2025, often citing factors like institutional adoption, halving cycles, and regulatory tailwinds. However, Bitcoin peaked at around $126,000 in October 2025 before crashing and closing the year near $88,000—far below his calls.
- Early 2024 prediction for end of 2025: Lee initially floated a $250,000 target for Bitcoin by year-end 2025. Actual: Missed by about 65%, with the year-end price at ~$88,000.
- January 2025 prediction for end of 2025: Lee discussed a $250,000 target, emphasizing market resilience and liquidity. Actual: Same miss as above, with a ~65% shortfall.
- August/September 2025 prediction for end of 2025: Lee predicted Bitcoin would “easily” surpass $200,000 by year-end, based on seasonal trends and rate cuts. Actual: Missed by over 50%, peaking at $126,000 and ending at ~$88,000.
- November 2025 adjusted prediction for end of 2025: As prices weakened, Lee softened his stance to Bitcoin likely exceeding $100,000 (or even reclaiming its October high of ~$125,000) by year-end. Actual: Still missed, with the year closing at ~$88,000 (about 12% below even this lowered bar).
These predictions were widely covered in media and interviews (e.g., on CNBC), but market volatility, macro headwinds, and a late-2025 correction led to consistent underperformance. Lee has since recycled his $200,000-$250,000 target for 2026, acknowledging the 2025 failure but remaining bullish long-term.
And yet they still have him on, week after week, as he can get any media exposure his cute little tushy desires. It’s bizarre.
