Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Cursed Touch

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We’re all familiar with the cover curse, including, of course, the Forbes Cover Curse. It’s simply one of life’s built-in ironies that when a certain entity achieves some kind of recognition of honor, something bad (even terrible) happens.

I offer the example of the news that came in late 2024 that Strategy (MSTR) was going to be included into the NASDAQ 100. This was seen as an affirmation of the company’s incredible success. I’ll just let the chart speak for itself, with an arrow indicating the date of the stock’s induction.

A Disinflationary Path……

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……….to the Next Inflation Problem

The near-term path is disinflationary, but the macro is now clearly inflationary

With Treasury bonds firming up lately, it is time to review the game plan NFTRH has been working to since 2023. After the macro not so subtlety obliterated its decades-long trend of disinflationary signaling in favor of inflationary signaling by the Treasury bond market, a cool down was in order.

To review, our “Continuum” chart was primary in keeping NFTRH, its writer, and its subscribers on the right side of the macro since the service was born in September, 2008 (into the teeth of a major macro liquidity event).

For example, you may recall the “Great Rotation” hype of 2013. That was when a bond market bear was supposedly brewing and a rotation into stocks would be at hand. Well, that second thing happened, but it was not at the expense of the bond market, as the 30yr Treasury yield rose to the EMAs 100 & 120, smashed against them, and reversed. That was one of several instances over 4 decades that the Continuum was tested, but remained in disinflationary lockdown.

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