Data released today (Thursday) shows that import and export prices are still in an overall downtrend from 2009, as shown below.
This downtrend is still in place in spite of the Fed’s massive money-printing efforts to reflate prices to those seen leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. The world-wide slowdown in demand has created this downtrend, in spite of the sharp divergence in trend in the stock markets, as shown on the Weekly chart of the SPX below.
This chart definitely does not reflect the reality of this slow-down, as the equity markets seem to be operating solely under the influence of Central Banks around the world, and not on, what used to be, the laws of market supply and demand…they have simply morphed into a ‘tool’ used by Central Bankers.
In the meantime, the US National Debt continues to accelerate unabated. Since the trend of the markets and this debt continue to rise, it would seem that the markets are simply an accumulation of debt. If you wish to become a holder of debt without seeing increasing demand for actual tangible products, then by all means, continue to buy into this market. At some point, a bigger (and senior) holder than you (Central Banks and banks) will wish to cash in their debt and take payment…that will come from smaller holders…just look to the ECB and Cyprus for a recent example of that scenario.
