Here’s the USO/TLT ratio layered with the SPY/QQQ ratio and, on the second chart, the inverted SPY, both synched.. This looks like late May to me.
Bright side: this rally won’t have much further to go if USO/TLT continues rising.
Dark side: this isn’t fast enough to be actionable right away. My gut says above ES 3820 there is more pain for bears.
Looking out beyond the immediate days ahead, the outlook for NASDAQ darkened. The outlook for the U.S. dollar strengthened. Rising oil (Japan, EU, China all import and have to spend reserves or print local currency) and rising interest rates have been bullish for USD this year. As long as stocks aren’t frontrunning positive developments yet to come in bonds and energy, the rally is on borrowed time.
