The Future of OpenAI

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Much has been made of the corporate structure of the planet’s most famous artificial intelligence company:

I’d say the more interesting thing would be its finances (which are, of course, utterly private). It’s very clear from everything I’ve seen that there is a talent war going on, and between Meta, Alphabet, and OpenAI, there are giant bags of cash being thrown at young men in their 20s.

In addition, my impression is that these supremely well-paid people actually aren’t doing or creating much of anything. It has more to do with making sure someone else DOESN’T get them than it does with acquiring talent for its own sake. They are being paid a fortune for no good reason. At all. It is NOT sustainable.

Let me put it this way: I strongly suspect OpenAI will never, ever turn a profit. Ever. They will, however, burn through hundreds of billions of dollars in cash, most of which will yield dividends in the form of publicity and puff pieces. Sam Altman will have his ego gratified, to be sure.

This is the most bubbly of all the bubbles, and it’s going to be quite a sight to see it blow up.