Only days ago, Bitcoin crossed above the meaninglessly but psychologically important $100,000 level with great fanfare. Social media was buried in a wave of posts declaring that $250,000 would be “easy” and $1 million achievable since, let’s face it, $100,000 is 10% of one million. I watched BTC play jump rope with $100k all weekend, and it’s finally sinking away. I think the crypto freaks kind of shot their wad with this one.
A clear juxtaposition of this behavior is our dear friend silver, which is up over 3.5%. Huzzah! This is another steppingstone toward what I think is going to be a fantastic 2025 for the metal.
My main fixation on the bearish side of things remains semiconductors. I sweated out the trendlines all last week, but none of them were violated, and we’ve commenced a beautiful waterfall, even with markets in general remaining very bullish. I’ve got a large block of March puts on AMD which are doing nicely.
Although I don’t trade NVDA, it’s a crucially important security and it, too, seems to have run out of mojo a few days ago.
The reason such stocks as AMD and NVDA are so important is that their fumbling will all contribute to what I think is the only real hope for overall equity weakness, which is for the overall semi space, encapsulated nicely by SMH, to roll over and plunge. It’s a bit of a stretch, but it isn’t out of the question that we could complete this tinted rounded top before this week is over.
