Jerome Powell: “I think it’s pretty clear we’ve avoided a recession”

In response to a media member, who at Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference, asked Jerome Powell if he thinks we’ve avoided the recession that everyone [read: the media and its obsession with the supposed negative indications of the former Yield Curve inversion] was talking about a couple of years ago, the Fed chief replied without missing a beat. Not only have we avoided a recession, but it’s “pretty clear“.

“Pretty Clear”? I don’t think so. At least not in the direction you indicate. It is clear to me that the macro continues to swing toward the counter-cyclical, recessionary “bust” end of the spectrum. Below are two indications toward that. There are many other negative signals in play as well. But it’s only one article and I’ll update the two I consider among the most important to my macro analysis.