I’d like to talk about…………this:
The spike you see, which instantly added trillions of dollars to equity market valuations around the world, was based on the news that our Treasury Secretary was going to talk to his counterpart from China in a few days about trade negotiations.
That’s seriously it. No deal. No framework. Just………a date. Maybe something romantic with candles. But how a chit-chat with an economic adversary suddenly solves all the world’s ills is beyond me.
Well, not entirely beyond. You see, I pride myself on a good vocabulary, but there’s one word I wish I could remember now which is perfect for this occasion. I’ve tried hunting for it, even using AI in my quest, but I have failed.
Let me pause before continuing and state that, as a person who leans heavily on analogies and metaphors, I’m about to plunge into something that’ll seem quite sexist, but please feel free to use it in the other direction. In other words, any tawdry talk on my part related to women can just as easily be applied to men. I take this approach merely because I, unlike the aforementioned Treasury Secretary, am attracted to women instead of men, thus I will be crafting my words with that disposition.
Anyway, back to that word I was searching for.
Years ago, I read about this word – – or perhaps it is a phrase – – which describes the human phenomenon in which the supposition of what a person looks like naked is invariably vastly better than the real thing. The entire, and I do mean the entire, lingerie industry is based upon precisely this phenomenon.
The whole idea behind lingerie is to make the contents absolutely tantalizing in one’s mind. Indeed, if the lovely lass below were fully undressed and devoid of any makeup at all, I daresay she would be substantially less physically appealing, in spite of being precisely the same person without anything between your eyeballs and her skin.
Or let’s take the example of the world’s most famous and most successful gold-digger, Lauren Sanchez. She is, no doubt, a very attractive person given the right makeup, clothes, and lighting.
And yet catch her in a bit more of a realistic situation – – such as a close-up of her bare legs – – and one begins to think of something that might be acquired at a live bait shoppe.
What on Earth does this have to do with tariffs, Tim? Plenty! Indeed, everything!
As I’ve said before, the absolute WORST thing for the President and for the market would be a resolution.
Trump has said that he has huge news to announce on Thursday or thereabouts, and we’re not going to believe how amazing it is (spoiler alert: we’ll believe it).
Let’s just suppose that the news is that he and Chairman Xi have been, unbeknownst to any of us, having late night conversations on the phone steeped in earnest, helpful banter and that they have hammered out a sensational deal that’ll make both economies boom.
Yes, the market would probably rip higher, but I absolutely guar-an-fuck-an-tee you that it would exhaust itself in no time, and the bears could finally have their way with the market for months, if not years.
I know that. They probably know it too. So, instead, what we have is this:
Day after day. Week after week. And month after month. Just tease after tease. There is great wisdom here. Perhaps the greatest lines written ever in Star Trek, my favorite show, capture this perfectly:
This news from Bessent is little different than a gorgeous woman in lingerie. It’s all about the tease. The anticipation. The conjuring up of how great the sex will be.
And yet there’s actually only one reality ahead of you.
Disappointment.
Nor is this a new phenomenon. Seven YEARS ago, I was bemoaning this precise situation with the same President, the same China, and the same goddamned endless trade talks.
Sadly, there’s no solution to this. I’ve toyed with the idea of just suspending my trading until the latest Trade War nonsense is over, but honest to God, this could last years, or at least certainly months. Just week after week of rumors, innuendo, “good news” which never materializes, and the equivalent of financial lingerie.
One day, a long time from now, the negligee is finally going to come off, and I can tell you right now…….
You’re not going to like what you see.
