Regarding my timid and impulsive covering on my QQQ position last night in the face of Scott Bessent’s latest mewings about how things were going to work out just scrumptiously with China, now that he’s going to rush off to Switzerland to talk to them, I only have this to ask you:
It’s true. My rash decision, executed with the pitiable goal of making me worry less, did precisely what I believed it would, which was to take all the verve out of this Bessent rally after I covered at a terrible price. It cost me, but I have subscribers to serve. Here is my brilliance in action:
So, yeah. You’re welcome.
The cold fact of the matter is that Bessent’s prancing off to Switzerland isn’t going to do a damned thing, although I guarantee you on Sunday they’ll hold some kind of little announcement in which they say Progress Is Being Made and that they’re sure to get this all sorted out Real Soon Now, while the two largest and most hopelessly indebted economies in the world try very hard to make sure the other one gets destroyed before they do, and that they’re the only one left standing. It’ll be a hoot.
This reality is reflected in the longer-term /NQ futures, which shows that last night’s explosive move, deliberately timed by Bessent during thin evening trading for maximum effect, doesn’t mean – – here, let me check my notes – – ah, here it is – – dick.
Speaking of which, Powell is doing his kabuki theatre today, which will have the same risible boilerplate (which he has memorized by this point) about how what they’re doing is for the American people, and how seriously they take their dual mandate, and all that other crap. Rates won’t change, and the media will be scrutinizing every comma, hyphen, and semi-colon for clues, as if any of that means a thing.
Indeed, by way of the event marker feature in SlopeCharts, overlaid with the SPY, you can see that the FOMC events (blue line) have been completely unimportant as inflection points of any kind this year.
As much self-flagellation as I’m performing with respect to the aforementioned QQQ cover, it represented only 1 out of 20 positions, but still, it doesn’t speak well of my character that I’d let Bessent’s power-bottom bluster rattle me………but rattle me it did. Feh. I’m going to wind up despising him even more than Powell at this rate, particularly considering the dozens of other times such an announcement is going to take place as the Trade Wars grind along, never getting resolved. Ever.
Good luck out there with the Fed. Oh, and again. You’re welcome.
