Having excitedly watching the Weekend Dow plunge to a loss of over six hundred points, it was a real bummer to see that, once the market was actually open, the loss was about one-third that amount. That is precisely what I was referring to when I wrote on my post early this morning that, “Weekend IG is often a very, very crude proxy of what actually happens when the futures markets open on Sunday evening“. Q.E.D.
In any case, I’m feeling whatever the opposite of sour grapes is right now, because the truth is that I’m not very aggressively positioned, and I would be way more upset if the Dow was down 1,000 and I was this lightly positioned. As I’ve mentioned before, given the choice (which I’m never given), I’d prefer a market which slips maybe half a percent day after day as opposed to a crash. It’s way more manageable, and it’s also less likely that some Fed dork will want to ride to the rescue.
Looking at the /RTY futures three hours into the trading session, they had a big spike down, but even at their lowest, they weren’t even as low as they were on Thursday before the attack even took place! It bounced from there, but at the moment it seems to have worn itself out and is steady. My hope, quite obviously, is for this thing to bleed down to beneath Thursday’s low and keep degrading the state of this market.
Crude oil basically did just the opposite, which is the blast sharply higher and instantly start selling off (recall that on the aforementioned IG platform, crude was up almost 9%, whereas now it’s up about merely 2.5% or so). Take note, however, that the session low found support at that red line. So, what’s that red line all about?
Well, it happens to be the trendline defining the right triangle pattern, which oil has evidently escaped. For the serious energy bulls out there, this might be a very encouraging sign.
Suffice it to say that in spite of all the snarky “it’ll all be green at the open” that’s floating around the web, I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the red quotes stay intact, in spite of so much of the panic already having dissipated by the opening bell.
See you Monday morning!
