When I was running my company Prophet (1992-2005), we did a lot of trade shows. I started Prophet with literally $3,000, and we had built it into a cool little twenty-person outfit with several million dollars per year in sales. Even now I find it hard to believe that I pulled it off.
There’s a reason I mention the trade shows, though. Some of you perhaps have had experiences like my own, but what would happen was that we’d go to these things, and I’d meet all kinds of other vendors and customers who had all kinds of great proposals for new products, marketing partnerships, joint ventures, and everything else under the sun.
My tiny company was rated by both Barron’s and Forbes as the best technical analysis website on the Internet, and it was exhilarating to have so many people come up to me with every manner of proposal to expand the business, extend our reach, and increase our sales. Whether it was before the show, during the show, or afterward at a party, it was all the same thing.
Then the show would end, and we’d all pack up our gear, and we’d all head home, and………..
Nothing.
It’s not that they were lying or anything. No one was trying to pull the wool over my eyes or get something out of me without giving something back. It’s simply that in the electric environment of a trade show (and the early 2000s were an exciting time!) people’s mouths got way ahead of practicalities. I’d say that for every twenty ideas/offers/opportunities that were proffered, maybe one would actually materialize.
Thus, over the course of many trade shows, I learned to temper my expectations about such interactions. I’d still be friendly and excited, but I accepted that once I got back to home base, the reality wouldn’t be anywhere close to the promises.
The reason I bring this up is timely and germane: that is, the President’s week in Asia, which have already produced plenty of positive press and heralded a litany of success stories. Rare earth metals! Soybeans! Thailand! Cambodia! Framework! You betcha!
It’ll all seem very, very positive, and that will surely flow into the markets short-term. Yet I cannot shake the lesson of my trade shows of years gone by. The pomp and circumstance of all these world leaders gathering, shaking hands, signing papers, and smiling for the cameras is basically the peak of whatever positivity will emerge from this week. Yet once he’s back home, give it a day or two. Watch for the fraying. Watch for the cracks.
Because no one’s at the trade show anymore.
