Happy Valentine’s Day, for those who choose to observe it. Let’s look at a few big ETFs following this big week on the markets.
First up is the DIA, based on the Dow Industrials which Kim Bondi single-handedly blew up with her hubris and shrieking. We are sub-50,000 again and have failed the breakout represented by the horizontal. What we really want to see is a failure of that medium-term trendline, anchored to last November’s low.
Emerging markets are safely within their overall uptrend. I have June puts on this sucker, but it needs to stop this habit of making lifetime highs (I just got the puts on Friday). We need to stay beneath Thursday’s peak.
Similarly situated is the EFA, equities outside of North America. This uptrend has been so powerful that it exceeded its ascending wedge, although is slipping below it again.
Gold, as I expected, has bumped its head against the horizontal. I think the highs for the year may be in, or at least for a few months.
The small caps have become intriguing. The island reversal pattern has stayed intact, and we cracked the medium-term trendline. This is my largest short right now.
Tech stocks have been going basically nowhere since September. The distribution top is nearly complete, and the Ursine God willing, we’ll crack under the tinted area I’ve highlighted instead of, yet again, pushing to the upper portion of that multi-month range.
Semiconductors are also respecting their uptrend, but here, too, the horizontal is key. If we can maintain below that lifetime high and, again, Ursine God smile upon us, cut below that trendline, it’s party time.
The largest, oldest, and most important ETF, the SPYders, is at the bottom of a range that’s been in place a few months. It’s going to take some kind of important catalyst to provide the power to bunch prices below the trendline as opposed to drifting higher as it usually goes. For this reason, I am medium-aggressively positioned as we burn through this three-day weekend.
I know that President’s Day is the second most exciting holiday in everyone’s year (edged out, but just barely, by Juneteenth), but I’ll be here the whole time doing posts. Godspeed!
